ALP retains Assembly, but Council to move right

Ok ... yes I've bveen slack - I've fallen asleep at the wheel of the blogging vessel! please accept my humble apologies to the two or three people still reading this blog ;-)

Week four and five of the worming saga will be posted this evening, but I wanted to get up my election prediction as a matter of urgency.

• ALP to retain government with a likelihood of an increased primary vote.


• The traditional left and right balance will shift slightly in the upper house in favour of the conservatives.


• Also watch for the Christian Democratic Party with their best chance yet of breaking into WA politics for real.

I'll expand on this further tonight.

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The Worm - Week 3

Did anything political happen in WA other than the "canal"??

Clearly not, as it was top of the media agenda, despite the Coalition trying desperately to move on and refocus on other policy launches. Meanwhile the ALP are carefully stringing it out for what it is worth, hoping that the populist idea can be overshadowed by enough questions about economic feasibility or social and environmental impact.

This week the wormers battled with the dial on the Perception Analyser like a joystick controlling some uncontrollable spaceship in a computer game. For the first time I swung my dial in a full arc from 0 (strongly disapprove) to 100 (strongly approve) and back again as Barnett and Gallop bombarded us with more arrogance, rhetoric and spin than should be a safe limit for any voter!

Clearly this issue is dividing WA like no other current issue and is reminiscent of Dickie Court's bell tower. You either love it or hate it!

Apart from the great Colinic-irrigation scheme, the Libs managed to belt out a riposte in the Hospital sector, announcing 750 additional beds within 4 years (compared with the ALP promise of 1000 beds in the next 10). The ALP scored a few brownie points with announcements to raise the school leaving age to 17 in two stages and threw in a $200 bonus to assist with education costs ($400 for TAFE students)

Perhaps both parties are warming themselves up for a barage of pork-barrelling in the final two weeks of the campaign. Maybe they have something up their sleeves for us?

The score thus far, as I see it, is:


ALP ... one point for each of the following announcements - education, health, car rego


LIB ... three points for the canal, two points for their coup with the nurses (if it holds out), but they lose one point for roll back on cannabis

That leaves the Libs marginally ahead at this stage and in a precarious situation over Barnett's arrogant commitment to the canal plan. The question on everyone's lips is whether he can remain firm and beat off his detractors - predominantly the ALP and most of the media!

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Libs bring out the dead

All the candidates for the WA State election are finalised and among the names we find a few surprises and a couple of laughs. I'll just highlight two of the Libs for now.

First off the rank has to be Graham Kierath returning as a candidate for Alfred Cove. Graham was a long-time Liberal MP and Minister for monumental failures, including Labour Relations and Health. He is unlikely to unseat sitting independant, Janet Woollard ... and we should all be thankful for that!

Graham seems to be in good company with the Libs also resurrecting failed Court (Dickie, not Sir Chuck) Minister, Roger Nicholls. He is well known for his poor management of Family and Community Services, among other notable events. I had a memorable clash with Roger in his early days as member for Mandurah and I find the man totally underwhelming. Roger is third on the ticket for South Metropolitan, which gives him little chance of taking a seat in the Council, so frankly I'm hoping he is merely trying to prop up the Libs rather than reinvent himself as a serious candidate.




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The Worm - Week 2

Worming was more interesting this week! Not only did we have more detail about Barnett's canal project, there was also a grab bag of minor policies from both sides that managed to attract media and voter attention.

The ALP plans to drop vehicle registrations by $25, build a new tertiary hospital in Murdoch and expand the Joondalup health campus. However, the hospitals are long term projects that will result in only a few hundred extra beds over the next decade. Take a walk through any hospital and, after noting the many empty beds, you will soon realise that a lack of resources (primarily funding & staff), not beds, is the major problem with our health system.

Meanwhile the Libs are going to rollback the law reforms for private cannabis use, making possession a court matter once again. Add this to his intended partial rollback of equality for same-sex attracted people and defacto couples and a common theme emerges. Barnett continues to promote the "we will reduce taxes" mantra that appears to be his key platform.

The majority opinion seems to be that Colin Barnett, despite his lack of charisma and continued negativity, won the Leaders Debate by a smidge. Though I do not share that opinion I will concede that he still has the stronger chance of winning ... even his canal project has caught the imagination of many voters - go figure!

We were also asked our voting intention regarding the referendum question on Sunday trading hours. The first group was split roughly 70/30 in favour, whilst the second group was almost 50/50 (excluding the undecided). Presumably the second question regarding extended weekday trading will be asked in future weeks.

It is interesting to note that more than 70% voted in favour of daylight saving (last week's topical question), yet this state has failed to support it in three previous referenda. Perhaps the difference lies in the fact that regional voters are not represented in this worm project. In light of that fact, perhaps daylight saving should be introduced for the metropolitan region only. :-)

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Barnett digs world's longest political grave

The election campaign may be into its second week, but until last night's televised Leaders Debate, it was flying low on the radar for most Western Australians.

Less than 24 hours ago this election seemed to be a choice between tweedle-dull and tweedle-duller. Now, with the help of an event equivalent to a Chernobyl-style meltdown inside of Colin Barnett's cranium, duller has become moronic, if not certifiably insane!

Of course, I'm talking about the Coalition (or is it just the crazy Libs?) promise to build the world's longest canal from the Kimberley to Perth, a distance of around 3700km. But it is not an original idea - the ALP set about investigating the concept last year (see the Guardian report here).

What is incredulous, is not that the idea has been raised (every option is valid until proven invalid) - the real problem is that Barnett used the Leaders Debate to publicly commit (presumably as a core promise) to the $2bn project without even so much as a feasibility report!!

As reported by the ABC:

Jorg Imberger, from the Centre for Water Research at the University of Western Australia, says Mr Barnett's policy is premature.


"Technically, a proposal like that is feasible, but whether it is economic or not is totally another question," he said.

Not just economically - what about environmentally? What effect will such a project have on native wildlife when it effectively creates a barrier between coastal and inland WA? What will be the effect of increased agriculture due to the proposed irrigation schemes along its path?

And why, oh why, should we use pristine clear water to supply industry, while many of our regional communities lack suitable potable water? If they do intend to use this resource for domestic supply, how will they guarantee the safety of the supply? At least with a sealed pipe (the much maligned Ernie Bridge proposal) it is more secure from deliberate or accidental contamination.

So many questions, so few answers. But at least it has a bit more credibility than the idea proposed by a former Democrat candidate who, quite a while ago, suggested towing an iceberg from Antarctica! :-)

If there was anything that might put a stop to the Libs gaining Government, this commitment just might do it. The ALP are probably celebrating already.

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