Iraq voter numbers are fantasy

No matter how many journalists, commentators and diplomats put their spin on the recent election in Iraq, one thing is for sure ... the USA is relying on the simple fact that most people can't count, or won't bother to question basic math!

In recent media reports, no doubt fuelled by US propaganda, speculation about the depth of voter turnout for the Iraq election has been remarkably positive. However, if you scratch beneath the thin sugar coating one big conclusion is apparent - they fudged the numbers!

Quite simply, the math doesn't add up!

Take this article from the BBC which states what many other news sources also claim:

The overall election turnout has been estimated at about 60% [of what], with some eight million Iraqis voting. It remains unclear how many Iraqis were registered to vote.

60% of what? 8 million voters @ 60% surely must equal more than 13 million eligible voters! And if the voters weren't registered how could they vote?

Even a seventh grade student can calculate a simple percentage if given the figures. So away we go to the CIA's World Factbook, which tells us that the population of Iraq aged 15yrs+ is approximately 15 million. Given that those between 15 and 18 are probably ineligible to vote the eligible voting population would be closer to 13 million - surprise!

It then isn't hard to calculate that the "8 million" who supposedly voted is roughly equal to 60% of eligible voters. So why then is it "unlcear how many Iraqis were registered to vote"?

The only possible conclusion is that someone, somewhere, has been plucking figures out of the air. It is far more likely that 60% of registered voters placed a ballot, and that the number of registered voters was somewhat less than the maximum 13 million eligible! It is more probable that even fewer than 8 million, possibly less than 5 million, were registered to vote given the difficulties of establishing a secure electoral roll.

With all this in mind it would surprise me if the total number of ballots received exceeded 3 or 4 million under such circumstances - less than 16% of the total population.

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The Worm - Week 1

Tonight Channel Nine recorded the first session of the "worm". Our responses were gauged via handheld dials, which we turned in approval or disapproval as we watched 8.5 minutes of Colin Barnett and Geoff Gallop commencing their election campaigns with very little gusto and relying on far too much rhetoric.

The ALP are planning to run on the strength of a booming economy and low unemployment, which are probably more reflective of Howard's work, than Gallop's. The only truth in Gallop's opening election address that he could claim rightfully as their own was the strong lead the ALP has taken on the environment.

Meanwhile the State Libs are promising to run a "positive" campaign (we'll see) and to cut stamp duty on cars and reduce other taxes. But, paradoxically, Barnett won't commit to not raising taxes, even after being asked three times and the cock failing to crow! A case of robbing Peter to pay Paul, no doubt!

Amazingly, the Libs have managed to score a tremendous coup this week, by brokering a deal to end the Nurses dispute should they be elected. This single act might prove to be the Coalition's greatest election asset. They may win with that platform alone!

What can I say about the election thus far? Not much at all, unfortunately. But I'm committed to remaining objective throughout the next five weeks. I'm going to try and see politics through the eyes of average Joe Bloggs. I'm putting aside my left leaning beliefs and will move my dial responsibly over the next five weeks. I might even find myself conflicted about where to send my vote!

Accordingly, at this early stage and based solely on the performance of the two leaders this week, my preferred Premier is Geoff Gallop. And, without any clear policy breakthroughs I would vote for the Greens if today was election day.

Balancing the books

So far it is costing the USA approximately US$4.8bn each month they remain in Iraq. And there is no doubt that the physical, mental and cultural cost to the Iraqi people (not to mention the international contingent of military, civil staff and volunteers) is far greater with in excess of 100,000 lives lost, and growing on a daily basis.

Now the Bush administration is seeking to ask Congress for an appropiation of a further $80bn to keep the invasion and crusade going. The BBC reports that the total cost for Afghanistan and Iraq is now edging towards $300bn in only 3 years.

Even more shocking is that the Pentagon's annual budget (excluding the two wars) stands at $400bn and looks set to put the Bush administration into catastrophic meltdown with an ongoing deficit of $500bn annually.

Meanwhile southern Asia continues to struggle to rebuild from the tsunami that killed in excess of 200,000 citizens and tourists and will cost a mere $20bn (1/15th of the cost of the ongoing and futile war against terror), to restore the necessary infrastructure to these nations and herald a bright new future for the orphaned, homeless, jobless, lonely, starving, ill and distressed citizens.

Is it just me, or are the USA priorities so wrong when they can justify spending 15 times as much money destroying precious lives under the guise of peace and liberty, rather than allocate a fraction of the cost to improve the lives of those hit by the worst natural tragedy of our generation?

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Worming the WA election

Old news: The WA State election has been called for 26th February.

Related news: I am participating in the Channel Nine "worm" research over the next five weeks. It involves 60 voters watching a series of policy announcements from the ALP and the Libs and recording responses via a handheld dial - the same technology used for the Federal Election Debate.

I'm interested in being part of the process as much as seeing how the voting intentions of the other 59 participants might change over the election campaign.

Our first bite at the worm is being recorded this Thursday night and will be aired on the following Friday evening. The same process will be repeated each week until the fat lady sings.

Stay tuned for updated worm bloggings :-)

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The Bush Resume

The following is good for a laugh ... if it wasn't so damn serious!

Obviously I missed its premiere on Crikey in 2003, but I'm glad they mentioned it again this week.

The George W Bush CV

Arrogant humanity?

Common Dreams offers a deeper insight into the human psyche and how the world might be dealing with the catastrophe that is the Tsunami and its after-effects.

Few disasters have come as greater surprises than this one, and part of that surprise was its origin in nature rather than man. Perhaps that's one reason George W. Bush and Tony Blair, shuttered in the closed universe of the man-made "war" on man-made terror, were so slow to awaken to the dimensions of the catastrophe. (Both leaders remained on vacation for more than a week after the event.) They seemed unable to conceive of a tragedy that was both irrelevant to their crusade and hugely exceeded it in scale and human importance. But in truth, most people around the world seemed disoriented by nature's shock. The human capacity for mass destruction has been so highly developed in our time that we seem, without quite realizing it, almost to have claimed title to the art, as if to say, "Wait, how can nature do this? Isn't killing hundreds of thousands of people our business?"

Which brings me to another topic. Early in December I changed my email signature to read ...

If the frogs or bees could have weapons of mass destruction, perhaps we'd show a little more respect for the earth!

How I wish this event could be proved to be connected to the way we treat the Earth. Mother Nature fighting back against the parasites of humanity would be a powerful message. Alas, the affected countries are not the ones to blame. If Nature showed vengeance and was also just, the Tsunami would have hit the East Coast of the USA, rather than the poor nations of South West Asia.

The Tsunami

I've been waiting to write something about the Tsunami. Words are often meaningless in such tragedies. Actions are the only comfort.

For once my admiration goes to John Howard and the Liberal government for their ability to comprehend the enormity of the situation and commit to a pledge of at least $1 billion for Indonesia. Finally Australia is showing signs of growing into a mature and responsible nation.

The death toll is sure to exceed 200,000 when the count is finalised with many more (probably running into the millions) who are seriously injured, homeless, grieving loved ones, or affected by hunger, thirst and disease.

Peace to those taken by nature's chaos, and peace to those left behind to rebuild their lives.