Picking a Pope

Much has been said about the accuracy of polls versus bookies when it has come to recent elections. The odds seem to be in favour of the pundits over the pollsters, but can we say the same for the one election that currently has the world on its toes.

The major difference between the papal ballot and a democratic government election is quite clearly the voters themselves.


115 "princes of the church" will meet tomorrow behind closed doors and away from the influence of the mortal world. They will choose, through a series of secret ballots, the man who will lead the Catholic Church and its 1 billion followers.


This is not democracy, nor is it representative. The next Pope must be an unmarried, single, male, Catholic. Even though the voting Cardinals can choose from the entire world they are likely to choose from amongst those in the conclave; and only those Cardinals under the age of 80 are entitled to be a part of that process.


Of course, this process is still much more democratic than the current process for electing our Prime Minister or Governor-General :-)


So who will be the new Pontiff?


If you listen to the people (via the bookies) the top candidates are:


NAME . . . . . . . . . . . . PADDYPOWER / SPORTINGBET



Joseph Ratzinger (Germany) 3 / 5.5

Jean-Marie Lustiger (France) 4.5 / 6

Carlo Maria Martini (Italy) 5 / 6.5

Dionigi Tettamanzi (Italy) 7 / 9

Claudio Hummes (Brazil) 8 / 8

Francis Arinze (Nigeria) 8 /10

Jorge Bergoglio (Argentina) 12 /10

Oscar Maradiaga (Honduras) 16 / 9

Angelo Sodano (Italy) 10 / 17

Jose Da Cruz Policarpo (Portugal) 12 / 15

Francisco Ossa (Chile) 14 / 17

Keith OBrien (Scotland) 20 / 21

Cardianl Ruini (Italy) 20 / 26

Christoph von Schoenborn (Austria) 33 / 15

Cardinal Scola (Italy) 33 / 17

Ivan Dias (India) 33 / 21

Giovanni Battista Re (Italy) 33 / 21

Cardinal Hoyos (Colombia) 40 / 17

Giacomo Biffi (Italy) 40 / 17

Jaime Alamino (Cuba) 40 / 17

Norberto Carrera (Mexico) 40 / 26

Ennio Antonelli (Italy) 50 / 17

Juan Cipriani (Italy) 50 / 17

Crescenzio Sepe (Italy) 80 / 17

...

George Pell (Australia) 66 / 101


The distribution of Catholics would suggest that the pontiff must come from Europe or Latin/South America. Therefore I will eliminate the popular Arinze from Nigeria (In addition I don't think the church is ready for a black Pope.) as well as Dias from India.

I'm inclined to eliminate all the Italians as the Church would appear to need to continue reaching out beyond its tradional homeland.

History shows us that the favourites are usually not the winners, so I'll eliminate Ratzinger and Lustiger. Similarly, I will deduct O'Brien as he originates from a superpower country - another unfavourable factor.

This leaves two Europeans (Policarpo and von Schoenborn) with seven from South America. But I think we can safely remove Alamino and Hoyos because politically, Cuba and Colombia fail to live up to the mark of delivering a Pope.

Thus, my shortlist is:


Claudio Hummes (Brazil)

Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Argentina)

Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga (Honduras)

Jose Da Cruz Policarpo (Portugal)

Francisco Javier Errazuriz Ossa (Chile)

Christoph von Schoenborn (Austria)

Norberto Rivera Carrera (Mexico)


It is possible to strike off Bergoglio because he is a Jesuit. Also, Hummes and Maradiaga are both considered progressives, which may go against them in a strikingly conservative conclave. Ossa and Carrera are strong contenders but who will the European Princes of the Church prefer?

Von Schoenborn would be a decisive vote for Europe, however he is reported to have made a few judgemental errors that have left him merely working in the shadow of retired Austrian Cardinal Franz König.

Policarpo, from Portugal, may be able to garner the much needed support of both Europe AND Latin America to ensure the papacy as a bridge between traditional Europe, which is home to 50% of all Cardinals and 25% of all Catholics, and Latin America, which commands 43% of the world's Catholic population but only 18% of Cardinals.

My money is on Policarpo or Ossa, with Carrera an outside third.


Good source of info at the New York Times