The Bush victory was easily predictable. Anyone claiming Kerry had a chance really had no understanding of the world we live in and the psyche of the US electorate. While I don't claim to be an expert, I do have my eyes open far enough to be able to read the signs. Objective analysis led me to predict Howard's win (though not his control of the Senate without the aid of Family First), the success of Family First, and Kerry's inability to win the people's vote.
In each of these events there were some key elements that should serve as a warning to future election campaigners.
- Voters are selfish
- Politics is unprincipled
- The media are not without bias
Three simple truths that seem to get lost in the excitement and banter of election fever.
Firstly, the majority of voters are loathe to think of anyone but themselves when marking the ballot paper. We live in a secular, individualistic society that has lost its community spirit. In the scramble to get to the top of the dung heap, we only manage to spread the manure further and are left smelling of crap. Gone are the days when we were all working for the common good and would lift a hand to help a stranger in need. Our national belief system lies in the divine trinity ... me, myself and I!
The irrational and purely selfish preference deals between some parties proves that politics is unprincipled. Even concrete policies are not as strong as they used to be as the ALP have shown by ditching long-held beliefs in favour of moving more towards the Coalition's views. It simply shows that such parties are opportunists rather than leaders with a principled vison for the future of a nation.
Undoubtedly, the gravest problem with our democratic elections is the influence of the media giants. There are very few balanced journalists left because they are increasingly being urged by their editors to provoke a response through the push of a particular opinion. To be fair, it is not that the media favours one party over another, it is merely that they make a commercial decision to not bite the hand that feeds them.
Politics and the work of government represents the majority of all news. To fall out of favour with the current government is a risk that no editor or producer is likely to take unless it is outweighed by an enormous ratings scoop that could take a government down. Hedging bets is not effective, so the media gamble on the outcome of the election to determine the party/candidate it needs to befriend.
Australia's electoral system, election advertising regulations and media ownership rules are some of the best in the world. We are able to safely state that our government is one of the most democratically elected because of compulsory voting and the preferential system.
Improvements to the system could be debated for years and without going into too much detail, some of my suggestions are:
- proportional representation in the lower houses
- optional preferential voting in both houses
- fixed terms of government to avoid election speculation
- eliminate Senate preference tickets
- eliminate distribution of "how-to-vote" propaganda at election booths
- election material to be approved by the AEC for factual validity
- a voter education campaign by the AEC
- revamp disclosure of political donations
I add the last point because I predict that the public will not be satisfactorily informed as to the source of funding for Family First. My expectation is that the vast majority (perhaps $750,000 or thereabouts) will remain undisclosed because it will be reported as minor donations from individuals. It is not hard to divvy a large donation up amongst a few fellow church-members in order to circumvent reporting regulations.
By no means am I suggesting that our system is bad, but it is open for improvement. There is a lot more that we can do for democracy (citizen initiated referenda and restructuring of the federal system to reduce the tiers of government are examples) but these suggestions are a good start.
The USA is not so lucky. They need a complete overhaul to remove the electoral college, reduce the unbreakable power of the two-party system, provide fairer access for voter registration, homogenise ballot mechanisms and eliminate the campaign funding loopholes.
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